Tough Choice? Avoid the AL Beast!

Have you ever been in a spot in your baseball draft where it was two guys that looked pretty equal, and you had a hard time choosing between the two? Let’s say you have the next pick your fantasy draft, and you have decided you will definitely take a starting pitcher. You must choose between Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. Both of them project for 18-ish wins, 200 Ks and nearly identical ERA and WHIP (going by ESPN projections – hey, it was the easiest).

So what’s your deciding factor? How do you choose?

Here is one way to look at things to help you make those tough choices. It is by no means meant to be the first and only way to evaluate players – just a way to make a tough choice more manageable.

First of all, I am a big believer in playing matchups when it comes to starting pitchers. When given the option of playing offensive Player A against 3 or 4 top-of-the-line pitchers for the week or playing offensive Player B against just 1 top-of-the-line starter, I’m usually going with B, no matter what the names are. The same can be said for my starting pitcher choices – I tend to look for matchups to exploit, especially in my head-to-head league. No chance you will see me run Wade Davis out there to face CC Sabathia, unless it’s my only choice (as it is in the UPL for now).

Baseball followers know that divisional rivals play against each other more than any non-division teams. So, if you take a look at the top SPs by division, you can attempt to predict which hitters and pitchers will most frequently be facing a very difficult matchup.

Here is a look at the top SPs by division (as determined by ESPN’s % owned – 90% or better, and ranked by me, for your convenience and ridicule):

AL EAST: CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Matt Garza, Javier Vazquez, David Price, James Shields, Clay Buchholz, Brian Matusz

AL CENTRAL: Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Max Scherzer, Scott Baker, Rick Porcello, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, F. Liriano

AL WEST: King Felix, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Brett Anderson, Rich Harden

NL EAST: Doc Halladay, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels, Ricky Nolasco, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, JA Happ

NL CENTRAL: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Wandy Rodriguez, Ryan Dempster, Roy Oswalt, Bronson Arroyo

NL WEST: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Jorge De La Rosa, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon Webb

So, it becomes apparent that I would have been taking King Felix over Lester….just look at the murderer’s row that is the AL Beast! Sure, if you have Lester, then he will never face Beckett or Lackey.....But Lord help you if you have Toronto or Baltimore pitchers (which I do – Marcum, but it was a flier), because I would say that those guys have to face a beast of an opposing pitcher 30-40 percent of the time.

Now, I will grant you there are only 4 teams in the AL West, but all four teams are at least represented. To me, the weakest division for starting pitching is the NL Central – there are six teams and the best the division can do is 7 pitchers (and Arroyo is a major stretch who just made it over the 90-percent-owned line).

NL Central hitters and pitchers = Buy! Buy! Buy!