Re-Draft Madness

First of all, let me note that my yearly redraft league is quirky in its scoring. It is a H2H, points-based league. Steals are worth 1 point (usually it is 2), which skews the whole thing toward the power players. Luck can be a major factor, in that the whole thing is basically decided during one-week playoff rounds (much like fantasy football, which I hate).

As a traditional roto player, it took me a few seasons to get a grasp on the best players, but this format has really grown on me. I have played in this league for quite a while now, and I have a first- and second-place finish to my credit.

Another quirk: Closer value. It hit me like a ton of bricks the first season -- I noticed that people were taking closers starting late in round 2 and early in round 3!! And when the flood gates opened, you could definitely see 6 teams in a row take a closer.

It blew my mind. Closers score the fewest amount of points every week; they have little to no chance of posting a 50-point week; and at the end of the season they contribute the fewest points to your team. For years, I have been determined to take advantage of this ridiculous trend, and I always came away with a strong team....but my train-wreck situations at closer seemed to always end up costing me huge in the end. I would advance in the playoffs, only to be upset by someone who outscored me 60-12 or something at the 2 RP positions. One year, I even tried drafting two middle relievers instead (and I was totally loaded everywhere else)...and I lost in the second round of the playoffs.

The year I won the league I made a deadline deal for, funnily enough, Jose Valverde, and it was the key to everything. This year, I tried to do what I've always done, but I told....no...forced myself to sacrifice a pick and take a closer in the first 4 rounds. All this explanation for taking Papelbon....lol

Anyway here's my squad. I had the 12th pick of 14 teams -- and oh yeah -- Utley went 10th and ARod went 11th (huh???). I almost fell off my chair thinking I would get ARoid.... I'm still chugging from the fountain of youth, as you will see. Chapman could be panning out for me just in time to carry me through the playoffs.

C- Ryan Doumit

1B- Miguel Cabrera (first pick)

2B- Aaron Hill (fourth pick)

3B- Jorge Cantu (seventh pick)

SS- Elvis Andrus (10th pick)

OF- Matt Holliday (second pick)

OF- Andrew McCutchen

OF- Adam Jones

DH- Nolan Reimold; or could be Travis Snider

Bench- Kevin Kouzmanoff; Gaby Sanchez; Matt LaPorta; Ian Desmond

SP- Tommy Hanson (fifth pick)

SP- Dan Haren (sixth pick)

SP- Clayton Kershaw (eighth pick)

SP/Backups (I use this slot for 2-start week-players for the most part): Shaun Marcum; Wade Davis; Jeff Niemann; Aroldis Chapman

RP- Papelbon (third pick)

RP- Dotel (ninth pick, and only the crappy closers left at this point -- Capps, Wood/Perez, Lyon/Lindstrom, thats it)

So...how did I do?

Chugging from the Fountain of Youth

I thought I had a pretty good idea of what would happen in our 8-round UPL free agent dispersal draft....and it turns out I was pretty off in my thinking.

I figured that the majority of the picks would be promising young baseball stars -- either future stars on the verge of being special (like, say, Gary Sheffield baby!); a few years away from being special; or, category three: was supposed to be special at one point but has not yet lived up to the hype.

After all the keepers were set, I set my pre-draft rankings. Here is a taste of the first 30:

1. Jason Heyward

2. Aroldis Chapman

3. Wade Davis

4. Clay Buchholz

5. Brian Matusz

6. Nolan Reimold

7. Travis Snider

8. Matt Capps

9. Octavio Dotel

10. Brandon Lyon

11. Matt Thornton

12. Hong-Chih Kuo

13. Jon Rauch

14. Desmond Jennings

15. Chris Pérez

16. James Loney

17. Martín Prado

18. Buster Posey

19. Brandon Morrow

20. Chris Tillman

21. Mat Latos

22. Dexter Fowler

23. Adam LaRoche

24. Jorge De La Rosa

25. Juan Pierre

26. Matt LaPorta

27. Casey McGehee

28. Alcides Escobar

29. Stephen Strasburg

30. Kevin Slowey

As you can see, I had a distinct strategy of taking (for the most part) only very promising young players, along with as many viable relief pitchers as I could handle.

My first move was to do anything in my power to move up to get Heyward, who in my opinion has the chance to be a top 5 OF, for the next 12 years. The guy is a total beast, and I am surely not the only one to think so. In any case, I was able to swing the deal pretty easily, and all it really cost me was Jose Valverde (the deal was Kendry Morales, the Heyward pick and a throw-in pick for Adrian Gonzalez, my first pick and Valverde).

**Side note on this deal: I think Gonzalez for Morales is a wash. Both are 27/28 and in their primes, and both post very similar numbers that are both on the rise. To me, closers are a dime a dozen, and especially in a keeper league, where it is very difficult to predict how long a closer can keep the job over the course of several seasons. Of my three closers (Bell, Valverde and Marmol), Valverde definitely has the most mileage, so it was easy to jettison him for a chance to pick Heyward. The throw-in pick turned out to be my only draft mistake, Hong Chih Kuo.

So anyway, here is how my draft went:

1. Heyward
2. Wade Davis
3. Lyon
4. Thornton
5. Chih Kuo
6. Jennings
7. Morrow
8. Justin Smoak
9. Ryan Perry

I ended up with TWO players in my top THREE!! WHAT!?!?!!? Six out my top 14. I was absolutely shocked when Wade Davis -- perhaps the best pitching prospect available in this draft -- fell all the way to me in the second round. Pitchers selected in the 21 picks before Davis included: Strausberg (understandable); Kevin Slowey (no way); Chapman (I would have too); Clay Buchholz (understandable); and Andy Pettitte (nuts). Davis is ready right now, whereas the two rookies will start the year in the minors.

Jennings with my six pick (fifth round) was an absolute steal. Smoak is highly touted, but I will have to wait for him and Jennings for at least half the season.

I pretty much got every RP I wanted (I read after the draft that Kuo's shoulder is busted again -- oops -- so I am going to cut him loose). Thornton is a beast; Lyon was supposed to close in Houston, and he should once Matt Lindstrom shows his true colors; Ryan Perry is young and is the closer in waiting in Detroit. Morrow was once as highly touted as anyone.

Mission accomplished.

Working in Vegas....Fabulous

So I'm off the Vegas tomorrow on my annual trade show trek. I will be working most of the time, and I most certainly wont be posting while I am away; however, I thought it would be interesting to sample the WS odds before I hit the road.

It always seems like a pre-season long shot makes it all the way. The Colorado Rockies were 90 to 1 to win the world series in 2007. They may have lost, but they were 20 to 1 to win the National League pennant that year, which is a handsome payoff. How about my Marlins in 2003? I found a site that said they were going off at 120 to 1 to win the WS before the season started. Let's not forget about surprise WS champs Chicago in 2005, and the Rays winning the AL pennant in 2008 (can't find the odds!! Something about the Internet -- they erase all that stuff!!)

Anyway, Here's a quick list that I found with this year's odds From Bodog.net...

1. New York Yankees: 11/4
2. Boston Red Sox: 13/2
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 9/1
4. Los Angeles Angels: 10/1
5. St. Louis Cardinals: 10/1
6. Los Angeles Dodgers: 11/1
7. Chicago Cubs: 15/1
8. New York Mets: 15/1
9. Tampa Bay Rays: 15/1
10. Atlanta Braves: 18/1
11. Colorado Rockies: 18/1
12. Chicago White Sox: 22/1
13. Detroit Tigers: 25/1
14. Florida Marlins: 25/1
15. Minnesota Twins: 25/1
16. San Francisco Giants: 25/1
17. Texas Rangers: 25/1
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: 40/1
19. Cincinnati Reds: 45/1
20. Milwaukee Brewers: 45/1
21. Oakland Athletics: 45/1
22. Cleveland Indians: 50/1
23. Seattle Marliners: 50/1
24. Toronto Blue Jays: 60/1
25. Baltimore Orioles: 75/1
26. Houston Astros: 75/1
27. San Diego Padres: 75/1
28. Kansas City Royals: 100/1
29. Pittsburgh Pirates: 100/1
30. Washington Nationals: 100/1

I love the teams in the 25 to 1 range...all five of them to me have a chance to compete for their respective pennants -- Detroit especially. Usually there seems to be one team that's a real long shot that looks decent, but I don't really see any; although the Mariners at 50 to 1 might have a shot (I guess). And how three teams are longer shots than the Padres is a mystery to me!

Will I be making my annual Marlins bet? Well they are 25 to 1 as you can see; and according to my research, they are 15 to 1 to win the NL pennant. Maybe a Marlins pennant bet and a Tigers WS bet? What happens in Vegas....will end up on this blog one day....well, maybe!

Expansion Plan

So there is one expansion team in the UPL...everyone has now designated their 12 protected keepers, and the expanding team gets to "draft" one player from every team to create his own 12-player list of protected keepers.

This is a very interesting concept for an expansion team -- it comes in, it creates a team that will be absolutely mediocre at best in its first incarnation, and it gets the last pick in the FA draft. This is going to be some test for the owner -- I'm not sure how much trade value he can get out of 12 players that owners decided not to protect.

So, what's the the over/under on years until this team is any good at all? Hard to tell until he actually picks his squad. But, with apologies to the Chairman, who is examining each of the UPL teams' unprotected list, I am just going to post the players I think the new team should take, so the readers can get a good feel for how bad (or potentially good?) this team will be.

The only top-50 player available is Grady Sizemore -- which doesnt make a lot of sense considering the team that left him unprotected decided to keep Jermaine Dye instead (a guy that would have been available for redraft). So that gift makes the team look a little bit better... I decided I would not take any closers for this team, as saves are/become the most common stat available on waivers throughout the season (if you are a good owner). I wanted to give the team a solid, young core, with one good trading chip.

1. OF- Grady Sizemore (no brainer)
2. 1B/3B- Chris Davis (got to take a chance to his talent despite last year's rocky season. Multi-eligibility is also going to be a big help).
3. OF- Colby Rasmus (this pick is debatable, but I am a fan)
4. 1B/OF- Garrett Jones (only going on half a season's stats, but he showed remarkable versatility and power in a short time last year, and he will have every chance to succeed in Pitt.
5. OF- Nyjer Morgan (gotta have a steals guy, and he is young and fast -- also a nice potential trade chip considering there is always someone looking for a mass steals guy mid-season)
6. OF- Juan Rivera (tough to lose him for me, but Rivera is young, coming on and provides power)
7. SS- Elvis Andrus (very young, very talented, not a ton of depth out there)
8. SS- Yunel Escobar (need trade bait with 2 above average, young SS -- although Andrus has more value and should be the one "on the block")
9. SP- Javier Vazquez (the only old player, but can anchor a starting staff this year)
10. SP- Matt Garza or Jair Jurrjens (hmmmm I think I want the Ks, so I pick Garza, but easily could have gone the other way).
11. SP- Ted Lilly (sort of old, but not a lot of choices)
12. SP- Gavin Floyd (young, has shown flashes of brilliance)

To me, there was nothing worth using a pick for at second base or catcher; and I explained why I did not choose an RP. I picked a group of OF because I think I would be looking to trade Sizemore from the moment he proves last year was a fluke (hopefully he does, for this team's sake). The starting pitching is competitive right off the bat, and it would be easy to deal away Vazquez to a team that isn't rebuilding.

It should be noted that once the 12 players are selected, the rest of the league gets to keep 6 more players -- then the expansion team (if Im right) gets to pick 6 more players from the group that was unkept -- so there is more intrigue to come.

But the bottom-line, looking at the potential core of this team, it's at least a 3-year rebuilding job in my opinion, but significant strides to the middle of the pack could possibly be made with some shrewd moves right away. We will see how creative this owner can get.

I will update this post when the expansion team actually makes its selections... and be sure to check out the Chairman's choices (with much more in-depth info on the player pool).

UPL 2010: The Odyssey Begins

Well folks my fantasy luck has continued...I have drawn the worst possible draft position for the UPL draft -- pick #5. All is not lost for me yet; although that player I really really want is looking a lot tougher to land.

This is a keeper league. I need to protect 12 players and keep another 6 that are unprotected (due to an expansion team drafting from the keeper pool). Last year, I drafted with the future in mind...I took the hit on Alex Rodriguez and selected him in the second round (he missed more than a month to start the season) -- a tremendous steal when 2010 rolls around and ARod is projected as the 3rd or 4th overall best player. I also had terrible luck with my first-round pick, Jose Reyes, who missed more than half the season.

So things are definitely looking brighter for me this season. A normal season of Reyes and ARod (look at that purse baby!) coupled with the rest of a solid offense that features both power and speed bodes well for 2010. My offense is covered at all the difficult-to-fill positions except one (catcher). My pitching staff will be anchored again by Doc Halladay, and I have acquired some good young pitching to offset the disastrous move of frustration-dropping Ricky Nolasco last year. I have 2 of the projected top 10 closers, along with Carlos Marmol, so relief is looking good to start.

To give you a better idea of how things look going into the draft, here is my list of 12 protected players, and other 6 potential keepers (marked as unprotected):

C- Bengie Molina (unprotected)
1B- Adrian Gonzalez (protected)
2B- Brandon Phillips (protected)
3B- Alex Rodriguez (protected)
SS- Jose Reyes (protected)
OF- Ben Zobrist (protected)
OF- Denard Span (protected)
OF- Ryan Ludwick (unprotected)
Util- Juan Rivera (unprotected)
Util- WILD CARD

SP- Roy Halladay (protected)
RP- Heath Bell (protected)
P- Jose Valverde (protected)
P- Carlos Marmol (protected)
P- Rick Porcello (protected)
P- Max Scherzer (protected)
P- Derek Lowe (unprotected)
P- Jeff Niemann (unprotected)

The lineup looks pretty decent, and if I'm correct, I can only lose one unprotected player in total. The Wild Card slot I am pretty much unsure about. Here are the candidates (any advice is always appreciated):

• Marco Scutaro -- supposed to be the starting SS for the Red Sox. He had a career season last year and was great for the OBP and Runs categories. Jed Lowrie may take some of his time away.
• Nick Johnson -- supposed to be the starting DH for the Yankees, and will likely hit second in that lineup -- that means big-time runs scored and OBP; however, Johnson's health is always a question mark. Still, he was third in the majors in OBP last season, and having that lineup around him cant hurt.
• Orlando Hudson -- traded to the Twins to become their starting second baseman, as part of a new-look middle infield that includes J.J. Hardy. A steady if not unspectacular hitter and runner, he will likely hit second behind Span. The fact that I have two bona-fide second base-eligible players makes him less likely to be kept; along with the fact that I probably dont want to own the top 2 batter for the Twins all season long.
• Corey Hart -- Coming off a below-average season (which is why I was able to pick him up at the end); however, he STILL won his arbitration hearing (huh?). Anyway, he missed all of August and still managed to post his third consecutive 20-20 season. CBS is projecting him as a late rounder, and I dont blame them.
• Vernon Wells -- One of my biggest draft-day mistakes last season and as far as I'm concerned, he was a total bust last year. Wells is on the wrong side of 30, and has shown marked regression the past 3 years. Probably no chance I'm keeping him.
• Erik Bedard -- Last year a great waiver pickup in the first three weeks of the season....this year he is coming off shoulder surgery and is not expected to even take the mound until late June at the earliest. Once this guy was a great pitcher...I think those days are gone.

In any case, I'm trying to swing a deal to move up in the draft -- so whichever lucky soul ends up with the first pick in the UPL lottery, please do me a favor and look me up before the draft starts. I probably have a deal you would like. Let the Odyssey begin!

BIG TRADE

I normally wouldn't post another in the same day.....but a big deal just went down between me and the second-place team and I just got shit about it on the message board.

But the conclusion for me is this: I just gave myself a chance.

Here's the deal: Steve Nash, Lamar Odom and Jason Thompson (throw-in) for Jameer Nelson, Kevin Love and Tyrus Thomas. I know, you are thinking: "Well yeah, you probably should have gotten shit for it on the message board!"

However, before you jump to any conclusions, let me explain my number-one rule of fantasy sports: Names mean nothing. Sure, Steve Nash is easily the best player in the deal, but let's examine what it does for both teams, shall we?

The team receiving Nash already has an 8 out of 10 (roto points) in assists. Essentially, this move for him was the effort of a team with 55-57 points trying to get to 57-59. He can only move up 2 points in assists, and he has got to catch my team (which has benefitted from Nash's assists all season long), and he also has to pass a team full of PGs, including Curry, Paul/Collison, Ellis and more. The deal makes sense because he replaces Love with essentially the same player in Odom, and he still gets the chance to move into the 60-point range and compete for the title.

My team is stuck in the 50-52 point range. I have already maximized Nash by leading the league by a good margin in assists; therefore, I HAD to trade him to pick up points where I am lacking. Tony Parker's injury and the trade deadline of Wednesday made this much more difficult -- now I had to get a PG back to fill the hole left by Nash. So, I get Jameer Nelson, who has been playing very well lately and is averaging 7 assists to play at PG, and he offsets some of the 12 assists I lose with Nash. Nelson, Kevin Love and Tyrus Thomas together will vastly increase my rebounds, blocks, steals, points and FG% potential for the final 20 games. I can see moving up a few points in each of these categories, while maintaining a 9 or 10 in assists.

That means I can now also move into the elite 60-point range by the end of the season, and now I have a chance to finish in the money. That's not to say the other 4 teams in the top 5 dont have the same chance -- but before this deal, I had no chance at all.

Snake Bitten; baseball biases; Hoops meltdown -- Welcome to Pauly's Fantasy Buffet

Well, it's been a few weeks since I have had the chance to write (work)...and it has been quite interesting run for me from a fantasy perspective -- both in baseball and hoops. And by interesting, I mean the wheels are coming off....argh!

Let's start with baseball....it is getting to be that time...I smell spring in the air. Last year, I drew the first pick in my annual money league (full redraft league) and I took Hanley Ramirez over Albert Pujols. THis was probably a mistake, as I ended up going deep into the H2H playoffs, only to lose in the semi-final round, and then lose again in the consolation game. You guessed it -- a bubble finish -- no money, only heartache (ask any tournament poker player about the bubble....maybe the most hated term in the game). Couple that with my next-to-last finish in my inaugural UPL appearance, and things were looking blue to me.

Enter Hoops. I have been playing fantasy baseball for a long time, and fantasy hoops came along about 10 years ago to pass the time between baseball season. Well, I'm in a league with a bunch of good guys, and I have found my form in the past 4 or 5 years -- including two first-place finishes in the past 3 years. As defending champion (again), I think I got a little cocky going into the draft...and it has showed in my team's performance this season. Dissecting the draft, I made some really good, forward-thinking moves that paid off (Nash as my PG, Boozer for $15, Camby for $10, Mayo for $8)....and many more questionable picks that have me scrambling just to finish in the money. I would argue that Ben Gordon is the biggest bust of the fantasy season...and I paid $18 for him. Add Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Courtney Lee to that list, and all my readers know about the Millsap debacle.

My mistake this season was holding tight onto the above characters, too confident that my draft-day analysis (That Boozer and Rip Hamilton would both be traded, for example) would eventually hold true. I was afraid to drop Ben Gordon for basically half of Weiss' team (Blatche and Collison especially), and of course, he is fighting for a title. Now, with a huge assists lead, I am trying to trade Nash -- well guess what -- he pretty much is worth half of what he was worth a month ago, thanks to an 11-point average on something like .420 shooting over the last month. Then Tony Parker, my only other point guard goes down for the season, and I'm stuck holding Nash unless I can make a deadline deal that has to include a PG coming back to me (not going to happen unless I pay nickels on the dollar).

It seems to me that the baseball bad luck caught up to the hoops squad this season. But at least I was confident enough to think that the curse is now over and I can concentrate on having a great baseball season in a month.

Guess again! I just drew pick #12 in the redraft league (out of 14). There goes just about every impact player on the board -- and now I will have to build my team out of a few top-tier pitchers and a bunch of middle-tier offensive players, which is just the way it is when you pick that low. One thing I can guarantee -- I wont have Roy Halladay or Johan Santana. Even if the strategy is to take the best pitcher available in the second round (and most, if not all of them will be available), I will NEVER root for a Phillies, Mets or Braves ace, period. So let's call Derek Lowe the ace of the Braves, because of course I want Tommy Hanson this year :)

More on my baseball draft strateg(ies) and takes on players heading into the season in a few weeks.

My final hope is that I do well in the UPL draft lottery, the results of which are being slowly announced at the UPL blog (link on the right side of this blog). I already know that one of the top three spots in the draft lottery has already been won by defending league champ Greg...there oughta be a rule against stuff like that! So anyway, I'm hoping I can parlay my next-to-last finish into the top pick in the draft, because I really really really really want a certain player for that team. Still, I'm looking forward to Chairman's analysis of my squad, which I think -- despite its low finish last season -- is primed for a nice bounce-back. My draft-day decision to take ARod with my second-round pick last season should pay me greater dividends than last year for sure. And I made some pretty shrewd (if I do say so myself) pickups in the last 2 weeks of the season that should help the pitching staff (Porcello and Niemann). But Chairman....make sure you arent writing about my squad until the end...although my recent track record and I have a feeling it ain't gonna happen.