This is a very interesting concept for an expansion team -- it comes in, it creates a team that will be absolutely mediocre at best in its first incarnation, and it gets the last pick in the FA draft. This is going to be some test for the owner -- I'm not sure how much trade value he can get out of 12 players that owners decided not to protect.
So, what's the the over/under on years until this team is any good at all? Hard to tell until he actually picks his squad. But, with apologies to the Chairman, who is examining each of the UPL teams' unprotected list, I am just going to post the players I think the new team should take, so the readers can get a good feel for how bad (or potentially good?) this team will be.
The only top-50 player available is Grady Sizemore -- which doesnt make a lot of sense considering the team that left him unprotected decided to keep Jermaine Dye instead (a guy that would have been available for redraft). So that gift makes the team look a little bit better... I decided I would not take any closers for this team, as saves are/become the most common stat available on waivers throughout the season (if you are a good owner). I wanted to give the team a solid, young core, with one good trading chip.
- OF- Grady Sizemore (no brainer)
- 1B/3B- Chris Davis (got to take a chance to his talent despite last year's rocky season. Multi-eligibility is also going to be a big help).
- OF- Colby Rasmus (this pick is debatable, but I am a fan)
- 1B/OF- Garrett Jones (only going on half a season's stats, but he showed remarkable versatility and power in a short time last year, and he will have every chance to succeed in Pitt.
- OF- Nyjer Morgan (gotta have a steals guy, and he is young and fast -- also a nice potential trade chip considering there is always someone looking for a mass steals guy mid-season)
- OF- Juan Rivera (tough to lose him for me, but Rivera is young, coming on and provides power)
- SS- Elvis Andrus (very young, very talented, not a ton of depth out there)
- SS- Yunel Escobar (need trade bait with 2 above average, young SS -- although Andrus has more value and should be the one "on the block")
- SP- Javier Vazquez (the only old player, but can anchor a starting staff this year)
- SP- Matt Garza or Jair Jurrjens (hmmmm I think I want the Ks, so I pick Garza, but easily could have gone the other way).
- SP- Ted Lilly (sort of old, but not a lot of choices)
- SP- Gavin Floyd (young, has shown flashes of brilliance)
To me, there was nothing worth using a pick for at second base or catcher; and I explained why I did not choose an RP. I picked a group of OF because I think I would be looking to trade Sizemore from the moment he proves last year was a fluke (hopefully he does, for this team's sake). The starting pitching is competitive right off the bat, and it would be easy to deal away Vazquez to a team that isn't rebuilding.
It should be noted that once the 12 players are selected, the rest of the league gets to keep 6 more players -- then the expansion team (if Im right) gets to pick 6 more players from the group that was unkept -- so there is more intrigue to come.
But the bottom-line, looking at the potential core of this team, it's at least a 3-year rebuilding job in my opinion, but significant strides to the middle of the pack could possibly be made with some shrewd moves right away. We will see how creative this owner can get.
I will update this post when the expansion team actually makes its selections... and be sure to check out the Chairman's choices (with much more in-depth info on the player pool).
I totally agree with the thought that this is a 3-year project. An expansion team should be happy with a top-half finish in year 1, and then be looking to add parts to get into the top 4 in year 2, and then hope to get lucky enough to compete in year 3.
ReplyDeleteI think that where we differ is our evaluation of what we can get in return for closers. For example, I'd bet that you could get a prospect, plus someone who could give you roughly the same production as Garret Jones (say, an Adam LaRoche) in return for Fuentes.
And Juan Rivera isn't that young anymore, which is scary since he's like 3 weeks older than I am :-)
Enjoyed reading your take, Pauly.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, Juan Rivera was a big sleeper pick about 4 or 5 years ago. I remember because I drafted him at the time. For whatever reason, be it injuries or inconsistency, he never quite lived up to the hype. He's a solid major league player no doubt, but I think what you see is what you get with him at this point.