I thought I had a pretty good idea of what would happen in our 8-round UPL free agent dispersal draft....and it turns out I was pretty off in my thinking.
I figured that the majority of the picks would be promising young baseball stars -- either future stars on the verge of being special (like, say, Gary Sheffield baby!); a few years away from being special; or, category three: was supposed to be special at one point but has not yet lived up to the hype.
After all the keepers were set, I set my pre-draft rankings. Here is a taste of the first 30:
1. Jason Heyward
2. Aroldis Chapman
3. Wade Davis
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Brian Matusz
6. Nolan Reimold
7. Travis Snider
8. Matt Capps
9. Octavio Dotel
10. Brandon Lyon
11. Matt Thornton
12. Hong-Chih Kuo
13. Jon Rauch
14. Desmond Jennings
15. Chris Pérez
16. James Loney
17. Martín Prado
18. Buster Posey
19. Brandon Morrow
20. Chris Tillman
21. Mat Latos
22. Dexter Fowler
23. Adam LaRoche
24. Jorge De La Rosa
25. Juan Pierre
26. Matt LaPorta
27. Casey McGehee
28. Alcides Escobar
29. Stephen Strasburg
30. Kevin Slowey
As you can see, I had a distinct strategy of taking (for the most part) only very promising young players, along with as many viable relief pitchers as I could handle.
My first move was to do anything in my power to move up to get Heyward, who in my opinion has the chance to be a top 5 OF, for the next 12 years. The guy is a total beast, and I am surely not the only one to think so. In any case, I was able to swing the deal pretty easily, and all it really cost me was Jose Valverde (the deal was Kendry Morales, the Heyward pick and a throw-in pick for Adrian Gonzalez, my first pick and Valverde).
**Side note on this deal: I think Gonzalez for Morales is a wash. Both are 27/28 and in their primes, and both post very similar numbers that are both on the rise. To me, closers are a dime a dozen, and especially in a keeper league, where it is very difficult to predict how long a closer can keep the job over the course of several seasons. Of my three closers (Bell, Valverde and Marmol), Valverde definitely has the most mileage, so it was easy to jettison him for a chance to pick Heyward. The throw-in pick turned out to be my only draft mistake, Hong Chih Kuo.
So anyway, here is how my draft went:
1. Heyward
2. Wade Davis
3. Lyon
4. Thornton
5. Chih Kuo
6. Jennings
7. Morrow
8. Justin Smoak
9. Ryan Perry
2. Wade Davis
3. Lyon
4. Thornton
5. Chih Kuo
6. Jennings
7. Morrow
8. Justin Smoak
9. Ryan Perry
I ended up with TWO players in my top THREE!! WHAT!?!?!!? Six out my top 14. I was absolutely shocked when Wade Davis -- perhaps the best pitching prospect available in this draft -- fell all the way to me in the second round. Pitchers selected in the 21 picks before Davis included: Strausberg (understandable); Kevin Slowey (no way); Chapman (I would have too); Clay Buchholz (understandable); and Andy Pettitte (nuts). Davis is ready right now, whereas the two rookies will start the year in the minors.
Jennings with my six pick (fifth round) was an absolute steal. Smoak is highly touted, but I will have to wait for him and Jennings for at least half the season.
I pretty much got every RP I wanted (I read after the draft that Kuo's shoulder is busted again -- oops -- so I am going to cut him loose). Thornton is a beast; Lyon was supposed to close in Houston, and he should once Matt Lindstrom shows his true colors; Ryan Perry is young and is the closer in waiting in Detroit. Morrow was once as highly touted as anyone.
Mission accomplished.
OK, gotta say I'm surprised you had Chapman rated above Strasburg--and especially surprised that you had Strasburg rated #29. But you might prove to be right in time.
ReplyDeleteLike the Gary Sheffield card. I actually remember riding on the school bus in the late 80s and a buddy of mine was showing some baseball cards. He had a Sheffield card and said this guy is going to be great... and he was right!
I could be wrong, but I think the wait on Strasburg is going to last a lot longer than the other guys.
ReplyDeleteI tend to favor the guys that are more MLB-ready to me. Chapman does because of the Cuban experience.
ReplyDeleteThe downside with the Cubans is that there's that risk that they are so extrinsically motivated. When you're playing for the right to have a car or to have meat for your family every day, it's one thing. Once you sign a huge contract in hand and the freedom to do whatever you want, then the motivation becomes intrinsic. Aside from El Duque, the transitions have been tougher. Many flame outs, and generally the performance has been less than advertised.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I'm hoping that the Reds put in the right support system for my boy Chapman, and that he has his head on straight :-)