Sunday, May 30, 2010

Act Like You Have Been There...

Wow, what a kick in the nuts! Kendry Morales hits a grand slam to win the game and busts his ankle celebrating afterward -- he's probably done for the year... all this on the night where Roy Halladay tosses a perfecto against the Fish AND I blow open the UPL and take a huge lead in the standings!

How is it that I can get one of the 2-3 injuries that could cripple my squad! What luck! First Base was one of the few positions (and the only offensive position outside of catcher) that I dont have a legit starting backup.

These guys need to take a cue from Barry Sanders...act like you've been there!!!!

As someone else has said in the UPL....It looks like it's trading season.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Killing us in the OF

Continuing my previous post, here is the top 10 all-fantasy killer outfield:

1. Carlos Lee, HOU -- Everything El Caballo has done to this point (next to nothing) is screaming for an adjustment. Then again, it is almost JUNE, and he has just 17 RBI and a .196 batting average. As for the adjustment, Lee has hit three HR in his last four games, to bring his season total up to 5. We all knew Lee would eventually fall off the cliff, but at age 34, there still seems to be time to muster another couple decent seasons -- although there is not a lot of lineup protection in Houston. Considering that Oswalt and Berkman have already indicated they want to be traded, it doesnt seem too far out of the realm of possibility that Caballo will be moved as well -- with that in mind, I would call him a terrific buy low, and the time is now.

2. Carlos Quentin, CHW -- I welcome yet another White Sox player to the all-team-killers list. Quentin kind of burst onto the scene a few years ago, and he has never lived up to his draft day value since then. In 2008, his breakout season, Quentin hit 36 HR and had 100 RBI; and he slugged .571. Then, he fractured his wrist by slamming a bat into the ground in frustration. Last year, he hit 21 HR to go with 56 RBI and missed most of May, all of June, and most of July. He hasn't gotten hurt yet this season, but the clock is ticking. I think you should sell the moment the guy meets a hot streak (if he can). He is currently batting .216 with just 4 HR.

3. Adam Lind, TOR -- Lind was flat-out awesome last season, and who could blame owners for thinking the same type of production would be in store this year? Well, he may be posting OK power numbers (7 HR), but considering that he is trailing Jose Bautista (14 HR), Vernon Wells (11), Alex Gonzalez (10) and John Buck (8) on his own team, we would expect more. Most savvy fantasy owners should have been expecting a short fall, considering his 110 strikeouts last season -- but he still managed to hit .305. This year, he is hitting .231 and slugging just .399; and he is almost halfway to his strikeout mark already, with 46. Here is another guy I would hold until he gets hot, and then try to move him.

4. Grady Sizemore, CLE -- Nobody has gotten as much flack for a decision lately as Michael of the UPL's Muddy Muddy Mush Heads did for leaving Sizemore unprotected (in favor of Jermaine Dye...ouch!) in our expansion draft. And while the Mush Heads are in last place, it isn't because he doesn't have Grady Sizemore! Every red warning flag should be up in the minds of fantasy owners regarding this guy. His season last year was ravaged by injury -- and guess what, his 2010 looks to be more of the same. His batting average has steadily declined over the last 4 seasons, and the power surge he showed in 2008 has disappeared. I think his most recent DL stint (knee) is a blessing in disguise for his owners -- first of all, it gets him out of the lineup :) and second, when he returns, there will be a little bit of buzz surrounding him. Hopefully that buzz will be enough for you to be able to swing a quick deal and get him off your roster for good.

5. Julio Borbon, TEX -- He hit .312 in 46 games last year...and owners were salivating over his 19 steals in those games. Better news for fantasy owners was that Borbon would be leading off for the potent Rangers offense this season, which surely meant a ton of runs and steals!! Fast forward to May, and Borbon is hitting .240, and has long since been moved to the 9th spot in the order, as phenom Elvis Andrus has assumed leadoff duties admirably. That leaves Borbon as a steals-only guy who only has 6 and has found his way onto most waiver wires. It's pretty much time to cut bait, unless you can find an owner who is desperate for speed -- but you wont be getting anywhere near draft-day value for him.

6. Chris Coghlan, FLA -- the reigning NL Rookie of the Year has absolutely no trade value right now -- even to his fans! As Greg told me in a recent e-mail: "I asked you (if you wanted to trade for him) because I figured you were the only person in the league who still valued him at all. Last season he started slow too, so maybe he's just a slow starter." Well, Greg, the fact of the matter is, Coghlan IS a slow starter and he is starting to come out of it. But that's not the problem with Cogs -- the problem is he doesn't provide the ideal set of stats from a top-of-the-line outfielder. His ROY season saw him amass 84 runs scored, which is awesome; however he only posted 9 HR 47 RBI and 8 SB. The bottom line is that Coghlan, even at his best, does not provide you with enough counting stats to justify his value. And when he struggles, those numbers tend to take a hit themselves. As much as I like his scrappy nature at the top of the lineup for the Fish, he shouldn't be starting on very many fantasy teams.

7. Nate McLouth, ATL -- Granted, Nate has come up with a few clutch hits -- I saw him crank a HR to deep center to win a game a few weeks ago -- but the fact of the matter is a prototypical leadoff hitter shouldn't be batting .198. Big props to my boss Steve, who told me three days before my drafts that McLouth was hitting something like .086 for spring training, which convinced me to stay away. McLouth has bounced around the order this season because of his inconsistent hitting, and mostly now finds himself batting in the 8 spot. This is terrible for his fantasy value (not to mention his paltry 2 steals), and while it may be too early to completely sever ties with the guy, I would be looking to get rid of him at a discount.

8. Milton Bradley, SEA -- Listen, we all knew this guy just might have a few screws loose. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he was dealing with "dark thoughts" in the last year or two that forced him to go onto the restricted list and miss most of this season so far. He just came back to the Mariners after some counseling, and he has posted two multi-hit games so far. If you are interested in reading more about Bradley's troubles, ESPN just did a cool exclusive interview. Numbers-wise, it is probably a big risk to try and buy low on Bradley, but someone on the Mariners has to start hitting, right? The discount on Bradley would be so deep that it might be worth taking a chance.

9. Nolan Reimold, BAL -- I was very high on Reimold coming into the season. He seems to possess all the tools to be a quality OF in the Majors. Instead, this season has turned into an unmitigated disaster for him and his owners -- bad enough to see him splitting time with Felix Pie -- and then finally bad enough to be demoted to AAA. He slugged .466 last year and looked very promising in a little more than half a season. After less than half of this one, I'm selling or dumping and not looking back.

10. Mark DeRosa, SF -- Even before he hit the DL, DeRosa was doing just about nothing. He may have looked good for half the season with the Cardinals last year, but those memories are long gone for fantasy owners this season, with a whopping 10 RBIs in 93 ABs. He is 35 years old, and now he has a bum wrist. Dump him.

HM- Kyle Blanks (bust city); Jeff Francouer (he teased you for a second or two, but he is back to form, hitting .210 with 29 strikeouts).

Thursday, May 20, 2010

The All-Team Killers Infield

Now that we are in mid-May, It's easier to see who is truly struggling. Thus, here is my list of the all-team killers infield based on stats thus far. Stay tuned for OFs and Pitchers.

If you own one of these players, it may be time to cut bait -- either by trading at a discount or by cutting them outright. If you dont own one of these players, this list represents a high-risk, buy-low scenario -- where you would likely be able to easily trade for these players at a discount over their draft prices.

Let's give it a go:

CATCHER
  • First team -- Chris Iannetta, COL. The guy is mashing in AAA right now. Doh!! Former Marlin Miguel Olivo is playing well enough to make this mid-round catcher fantasy irrelevant.
  • Second team -- Victor Martinez, BOS. Apologies to AJ Pierzynski owners, but Victor was a much higher pick who is delivering with a .234 batting average. He is slugging .379; but then again, teammate Jason Varitek is slugging .804! Victor is batting .217 in the last 2 weeks, so things are not on the upswing at all. Still, probably a good buy-low at this point, but will be difficult with that name.
  • Hon. Mention -- Pierzynski; Miguel Montero (injured); Mike Napoli
FIRST BASE
  • First team -- Carlos Pena, TB. Amazing to think that the Rays are dominating with its best power hitter turning in a .185 BA so far. Pena is mired is what is probably his worst career slump-- he is batting .150 over the last two weeks with 2 RBI. Classic buy-low opportunity here, as Pena owners are sure to be eager to pull the plug. But who would want to buy this junk right now?
  • Second team -- Chris Davis, TEX. He has been demoted, and I dont see him coming back until he is on another team completely. Given several chances, Davis probably has proven that he is a bust. Cut the cord!
  • Hon. Mention -- Mark Teixeira (coming on lately, so he avoids the top 2); Derrek Lee (when is this guy going to start hitting already?); Nick Johnson (cut the cord!! Done again!)
SECOND BASE
  • First team -- Gordon Beckham, CHW. Definitely a buy-low considering his pedigree; and his .184 average and bordering-on-zero counting stats (1 HR, 6 RBI in 130 ABs) will make it really easy. Oh yeah, and he is batting .102 in the month of May. He should be on someone's bench, but at this point, his stats make him totally worthless.
  • Second team -- Brian Roberts, BAL. One of the many reasons that the Orioles totally suck -- well mainly because he hasn't been there to lead off. Sure, he was batting .142 before his back injury, and he is due back in mid-June, but this might be something that lingers for quite a while. Almost zero return right now on what was one of the top 10 pre-season 2Bs.
  • Hon. Mention -- Aaron Hill (my man needs to find his stroke); Jose Lopez (following up a career year with a .214 average so far); Clint Barmes (cant seem to hit, may be a cut-the-cord guy).
THIRD BASE
  • First team -- Aramis Ramirez, CHC. The easy choice. He is just 32 years old -- has he just lost it? From what I have seen, not only can't he hit, but he is also butchering plays at third base on a routine basis. A friend of mine just got offered three junk players for Aramis...I thought he might have to take it. He's batting .166, for the record, although he does have 20 RBIs.
  • Second team -- Chone Figgins, SEA. A change of scenery has thrown this guy's game into the crapper. Nine steals is a redeemable quality, but how can you swallow that .194 batting average? Still, I would put him on the buy-low list, if you need some speed.
  • Hon. Mention -- Mark DeRosa (sucked before he got injured); Chipper Jones (sucks now, before he will get injured).
SHORTSTOP
  • First team -- Yunel Escobar, ATL. I was very high on Escobar coming into the season, so his .179 average, zero HR and a measly 17 combined runs and RBIs comes as a sort of shock to me. He came in as the fifth-ranked SS by CBS for heaven's sake!! This is a guy that finished with a .300 average and a .436 slugging % last season. Of everyone I have mentioned so far, I think he is the best buy-low out there. An adjustment is coming in my opinion.
  • Second team -- Jose Reyes, NYM. Last year, he was universally taken in the first five or so picks of every fantasy baseball draft. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Most owners are forced to suffer through his .210 BA to get those 9 steals, especially when the dude was projected (last year) to steal 70-plus bases for the next 10 seasons. People like me who bought this guy on the hype last year will be loathed to sell him this low, but it's looking like it might be now or never to get something back for him.
  • Hon. Mention -- Alexi Ramirez (how many White Sox can I name?); Jason Bartlett (starting to turn it around, so buy now before it's too late); Erick Aybar (.229 average, but 23 runs scored -- should bring up the average soon).
I will admit that I own (or have at one point owned) four of these players.

Therefore, in their honor, I will post the following:

Thursday, May 13, 2010

A Game of Inches

OK folks, I have been silent to this point, but now that the dust has cleared regarding my vetoed trade in the UPL, I want to go ahead and vent.

I was *this close* to having the most promising -- and probably the very best -- three-OF combination for the next 10 years in a league where you keep 2/3 of your roster and there is no limit on the length of service time. That's right, my OF would have been: Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings and Mike Stanton. Set for the next 10+ years, period.

And that's not all -- I also would have gotten a 27-year-old front-line SP for my trouble....and I get all that by simply answering an e-mail about Justin Smoak.

When I was drafting, my clear strategy was to load up on promising young guys who were either: 1) about to be a superstar (why I traded up to get Heyward); or 2) someone who is 2-12 months away from becoming a major contributor.

This is why I drafted Smoak. Not only was the guy highly touted, but I also had a feeling that Chris Davis was going to flounder. Not one month into the season, I was rewarded when Smoak was called up to start in the potent Texas offense. I drafted Jennings a few picks before Smoak because he is more highly touted and due to be called up late this year.

This is also why I did not draft Mike Stanton, and chose to take Smoak instead -- because I knew that Smoak would be in the bigs many months before Stanton, who was not projected to be called up (at draft time) until 2011.

Anyway, I get this email asking about Smoak's availability, and I respond simply: "if you offer me some pitching, I will listen." Eventually, I settled on Smoak for Jered Weaver straight-up; but I was countered with something I didnt like, so I re-proposed Smoak and Marco Scutaro for Weaver and Stanton.

He accepted.

Auto Veto.

Uproar.

Bedlam.

Rule change.

Auto Veto is now effectively dead.

I ended up taking Erick Aybar instead of Stanton to make the trade happen (because Weaver was definitely the true target). And I realize that Stanton will be called up this season (after a torrid minor league go); but the bottom line is that he was picked off waivers just 2 weeks before the trade went down. I offered him a starter-quality SS for a guy in the minors and was shot down by someone not involved in the deal.

I'm not petty or upset -- I still got my guy, who has been great in a few starts for me already. But truth be told, if someone is in love with the potential that Smoak brings, who is anyone else to say that he isn't worth Weaver and Stanton?

*this close* doesnt count in a lot of things...and fantasy baseball is certainly one of them. I can live with that.

SIDE NOTE: Maybe it's karma or whatever, but the bats are warm, the arms are hot, and the Hats for Bats -- the same team that couldnt find its way out of last place for more than 3/4 of last season -- are challenging for a spot on the podium these days. I can definitely live with that!