I normally wouldn't post another in the same day.....but a big deal just went down between me and the second-place team and I just got shit about it on the message board.
But the conclusion for me is this: I just gave myself a chance.
Here's the deal: Steve Nash, Lamar Odom and Jason Thompson (throw-in) for Jameer Nelson, Kevin Love and Tyrus Thomas. I know, you are thinking: "Well yeah, you probably should have gotten shit for it on the message board!"
However, before you jump to any conclusions, let me explain my number-one rule of fantasy sports: Names mean nothing. Sure, Steve Nash is easily the best player in the deal, but let's examine what it does for both teams, shall we?
The team receiving Nash already has an 8 out of 10 (roto points) in assists. Essentially, this move for him was the effort of a team with 55-57 points trying to get to 57-59. He can only move up 2 points in assists, and he has got to catch my team (which has benefitted from Nash's assists all season long), and he also has to pass a team full of PGs, including Curry, Paul/Collison, Ellis and more. The deal makes sense because he replaces Love with essentially the same player in Odom, and he still gets the chance to move into the 60-point range and compete for the title.
My team is stuck in the 50-52 point range. I have already maximized Nash by leading the league by a good margin in assists; therefore, I HAD to trade him to pick up points where I am lacking. Tony Parker's injury and the trade deadline of Wednesday made this much more difficult -- now I had to get a PG back to fill the hole left by Nash. So, I get Jameer Nelson, who has been playing very well lately and is averaging 7 assists to play at PG, and he offsets some of the 12 assists I lose with Nash. Nelson, Kevin Love and Tyrus Thomas together will vastly increase my rebounds, blocks, steals, points and FG% potential for the final 20 games. I can see moving up a few points in each of these categories, while maintaining a 9 or 10 in assists.
That means I can now also move into the elite 60-point range by the end of the season, and now I have a chance to finish in the money. That's not to say the other 4 teams in the top 5 dont have the same chance -- but before this deal, I had no chance at all.
Showing posts with label fantasy basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy basketball. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Snake Bitten; baseball biases; Hoops meltdown -- Welcome to Pauly's Fantasy Buffet
Well, it's been a few weeks since I have had the chance to write (work)...and it has been quite interesting run for me from a fantasy perspective -- both in baseball and hoops. And by interesting, I mean the wheels are coming off....argh!
Let's start with baseball....it is getting to be that time...I smell spring in the air. Last year, I drew the first pick in my annual money league (full redraft league) and I took Hanley Ramirez over Albert Pujols. THis was probably a mistake, as I ended up going deep into the H2H playoffs, only to lose in the semi-final round, and then lose again in the consolation game. You guessed it -- a bubble finish -- no money, only heartache (ask any tournament poker player about the bubble....maybe the most hated term in the game). Couple that with my next-to-last finish in my inaugural UPL appearance, and things were looking blue to me.
Enter Hoops. I have been playing fantasy baseball for a long time, and fantasy hoops came along about 10 years ago to pass the time between baseball season. Well, I'm in a league with a bunch of good guys, and I have found my form in the past 4 or 5 years -- including two first-place finishes in the past 3 years. As defending champion (again), I think I got a little cocky going into the draft...and it has showed in my team's performance this season. Dissecting the draft, I made some really good, forward-thinking moves that paid off (Nash as my PG, Boozer for $15, Camby for $10, Mayo for $8)....and many more questionable picks that have me scrambling just to finish in the money. I would argue that Ben Gordon is the biggest bust of the fantasy season...and I paid $18 for him. Add Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Courtney Lee to that list, and all my readers know about the Millsap debacle.
My mistake this season was holding tight onto the above characters, too confident that my draft-day analysis (That Boozer and Rip Hamilton would both be traded, for example) would eventually hold true. I was afraid to drop Ben Gordon for basically half of Weiss' team (Blatche and Collison especially), and of course, he is fighting for a title. Now, with a huge assists lead, I am trying to trade Nash -- well guess what -- he pretty much is worth half of what he was worth a month ago, thanks to an 11-point average on something like .420 shooting over the last month. Then Tony Parker, my only other point guard goes down for the season, and I'm stuck holding Nash unless I can make a deadline deal that has to include a PG coming back to me (not going to happen unless I pay nickels on the dollar).
It seems to me that the baseball bad luck caught up to the hoops squad this season. But at least I was confident enough to think that the curse is now over and I can concentrate on having a great baseball season in a month.
Guess again! I just drew pick #12 in the redraft league (out of 14). There goes just about every impact player on the board -- and now I will have to build my team out of a few top-tier pitchers and a bunch of middle-tier offensive players, which is just the way it is when you pick that low. One thing I can guarantee -- I wont have Roy Halladay or Johan Santana. Even if the strategy is to take the best pitcher available in the second round (and most, if not all of them will be available), I will NEVER root for a Phillies, Mets or Braves ace, period. So let's call Derek Lowe the ace of the Braves, because of course I want Tommy Hanson this year :)
More on my baseball draft strateg(ies) and takes on players heading into the season in a few weeks.
My final hope is that I do well in the UPL draft lottery, the results of which are being slowly announced at the UPL blog (link on the right side of this blog). I already know that one of the top three spots in the draft lottery has already been won by defending league champ Greg...there oughta be a rule against stuff like that! So anyway, I'm hoping I can parlay my next-to-last finish into the top pick in the draft, because I really really really really want a certain player for that team. Still, I'm looking forward to Chairman's analysis of my squad, which I think -- despite its low finish last season -- is primed for a nice bounce-back. My draft-day decision to take ARod with my second-round pick last season should pay me greater dividends than last year for sure. And I made some pretty shrewd (if I do say so myself) pickups in the last 2 weeks of the season that should help the pitching staff (Porcello and Niemann). But Chairman....make sure you arent writing about my squad until the end...although my recent track record and I have a feeling it ain't gonna happen.
Let's start with baseball....it is getting to be that time...I smell spring in the air. Last year, I drew the first pick in my annual money league (full redraft league) and I took Hanley Ramirez over Albert Pujols. THis was probably a mistake, as I ended up going deep into the H2H playoffs, only to lose in the semi-final round, and then lose again in the consolation game. You guessed it -- a bubble finish -- no money, only heartache (ask any tournament poker player about the bubble....maybe the most hated term in the game). Couple that with my next-to-last finish in my inaugural UPL appearance, and things were looking blue to me.
Enter Hoops. I have been playing fantasy baseball for a long time, and fantasy hoops came along about 10 years ago to pass the time between baseball season. Well, I'm in a league with a bunch of good guys, and I have found my form in the past 4 or 5 years -- including two first-place finishes in the past 3 years. As defending champion (again), I think I got a little cocky going into the draft...and it has showed in my team's performance this season. Dissecting the draft, I made some really good, forward-thinking moves that paid off (Nash as my PG, Boozer for $15, Camby for $10, Mayo for $8)....and many more questionable picks that have me scrambling just to finish in the money. I would argue that Ben Gordon is the biggest bust of the fantasy season...and I paid $18 for him. Add Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons and Courtney Lee to that list, and all my readers know about the Millsap debacle.
My mistake this season was holding tight onto the above characters, too confident that my draft-day analysis (That Boozer and Rip Hamilton would both be traded, for example) would eventually hold true. I was afraid to drop Ben Gordon for basically half of Weiss' team (Blatche and Collison especially), and of course, he is fighting for a title. Now, with a huge assists lead, I am trying to trade Nash -- well guess what -- he pretty much is worth half of what he was worth a month ago, thanks to an 11-point average on something like .420 shooting over the last month. Then Tony Parker, my only other point guard goes down for the season, and I'm stuck holding Nash unless I can make a deadline deal that has to include a PG coming back to me (not going to happen unless I pay nickels on the dollar).
It seems to me that the baseball bad luck caught up to the hoops squad this season. But at least I was confident enough to think that the curse is now over and I can concentrate on having a great baseball season in a month.
Guess again! I just drew pick #12 in the redraft league (out of 14). There goes just about every impact player on the board -- and now I will have to build my team out of a few top-tier pitchers and a bunch of middle-tier offensive players, which is just the way it is when you pick that low. One thing I can guarantee -- I wont have Roy Halladay or Johan Santana. Even if the strategy is to take the best pitcher available in the second round (and most, if not all of them will be available), I will NEVER root for a Phillies, Mets or Braves ace, period. So let's call Derek Lowe the ace of the Braves, because of course I want Tommy Hanson this year :)
More on my baseball draft strateg(ies) and takes on players heading into the season in a few weeks.
My final hope is that I do well in the UPL draft lottery, the results of which are being slowly announced at the UPL blog (link on the right side of this blog). I already know that one of the top three spots in the draft lottery has already been won by defending league champ Greg...there oughta be a rule against stuff like that! So anyway, I'm hoping I can parlay my next-to-last finish into the top pick in the draft, because I really really really really want a certain player for that team. Still, I'm looking forward to Chairman's analysis of my squad, which I think -- despite its low finish last season -- is primed for a nice bounce-back. My draft-day decision to take ARod with my second-round pick last season should pay me greater dividends than last year for sure. And I made some pretty shrewd (if I do say so myself) pickups in the last 2 weeks of the season that should help the pitching staff (Porcello and Niemann). But Chairman....make sure you arent writing about my squad until the end...although my recent track record and I have a feeling it ain't gonna happen.
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