Thursday, December 2, 2010

You Make the HoF Call

What do the following players have in common?

  1. Wilson Alvarez
  2. Roberto Alomar
  3. Carlos Baerga
  4. Jeff Bagwell
  5. Harold Baines
  6. Bert Blyleven
  7. Brett Boone
  8. Kevin Brown
  9. Cal Eldred
  10. John Franco
  11. Juan Gonzalez
  12. Marquis Grissom
  13. Lenny Harris
  14. Bobby Higginson
  15. Charles Johnson
  16. Barry Larkin
  17. Al Leiter
  18. José Lima* Eligible on “passed away” provision
  19. Edgar Martinez
  20. Tino Martinez
  21. Don Mattingly
  22. Fred McGriff
  23. Mark McGwire
  24. Raul Mondesi
  25. Jack Morris
  26. Dale Murphy
  27. José Offerman
  28. John Olerud
  29. Rafael Palmeiro
  30. Dave Parker
  31. Paul Quantrill
  32. Tim Raines
  33. Steve Reed
  34. Kirk Rueter
  35. Rey Sánchez
  36. Benito Santiago
  37. Lee Smith
  38. B.J. Surhoff
  39. Alan Trammell
  40. Ugueth Urbina
  41. Ismael Valdez
  42. Larry Walker
  43. Dan Wilson

That’s right, they will be on the official baseball Hall of Fame Ballot this season.

So let’s make you guys (and me) the electors. Here are the rules, straight from the BBWAA:

A. Electors may vote for as few as zero (0) and as many as ten (10) eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted.

B. Any candidate receiving votes on seventy-five percent (75%) of the ballots cast shall be elected to membership in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

So who are you nominating? Here’s my ballot:

1. Roberto Alomar

2. Bert Blyleven

3. Tim Raines

4. Jeff Bagwell

5. Larry Walker

6. Jack Morris

7. Barry Larkin

8. Fred McGriff

No, I did not vote for Edgar Martinez. No I did not vote for Raffy Palmiero or Mark McGwire. And no, I did not vote for other steroid junkies like Bret Boone or Juan Gonzalez. (Discuss…)


If I get enough ballots (more than 2?) I will tally up our HoF selections. So, COME ON COMMITTEE!!


Lots of former Marlins on this list….there are 8 -- can you name them?

I’ll save you the trouble:

  • Kevin Brown (Ace pitcher on FLA's first WS winner),
  • Lenny Harris (ended his long career with three yrs in FLA),
  • Charles Johnson (1st ever draft pick, on the 97 squad),
  • Al Leiter (pitched a no-no for us and won the WS),
  • Paul Quantrill (also ended his career with the fish)
  • Benito Santiago (opening day catcher),
  • Ugueth Urbina (saved FLA’s second WS over the Yanks),
  • Ismael Valdez (ended his career in FLA)

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The new-look Florida Marlins?

It is uncanny. I go ahead and vent my bellyaching for the Marlins trade of Cameron Maybin and what do they do?

Of course, they one-up me.

In case you hadn't heard, the Marlins just traded Dan Uggla for career utility man Omar Infante and LH reliever Mike Dunn.

I think we just found #11 on the list in my previous posting. Holy cannoli!

It's hard to ascertain what the Marlins are doing here. They just traded their CF and 2B for three relievers and a utility infielder for heaven's sake....but there may be a silver lining on this very dark cloud (more on this in a second).

First, I understand the reasons why the Marlins needed to trade Uggla away. Forget the fact that he is the club's all-time home run leader, because he refused a decent $48 million offer from the Marlins earlier this offseason. Yes, Florida had to get some kind of return on investment -- and as a my good friend Adam reminded me yesterday, the Marlins got Uggla for nothing way back in 2005 in the Rule 5 Draft.

But Omar Infante? I'm not a fan. In his last five seasons with Detroit and then Atlanta, he has averaged 88.8 games played per season. Forget his ridiculous all-star selection last season -- this guy is simply a career backup infielder (8 years worth of being one, too) who has played well recently -- although his defense is extremely suspect. In 29 games as a third baseman (the position he projects to play in Florida), he committed 30 errors last season. Yeah -- that's more than one error PER GAME.

Dunn offers the Marlins some much-needed bullpen help; however, did they not just trade away their prospect center fielder for two relief pitchers?

It has been a fast start to the hot stove season for the Marlins. Not only have they made two pretty awful trades, but they also spent $18 million for three years on a middle-of-the-road catcher, John Buck, who probably could have been signed for half that amount. Sure, Buck hit 20 homers last season for the Blue Jays -- but guess what, he isn't going to do that next year in spacious Dolphin Stadium...although I suppose the new ballpark would be more suitable to his power.

The Silver Lining
Everything above has been undoubtedly bad for the Marlins so far. Some people on the message boards are calling for an official intervention! However, there is some good news....

First, assuming Infante is placed at third base, Chris Coghlan will move to his natural position of second base for next season. This is great news for his fantasy owners, because Cogs' production was middling at best for an OF, but should be above average production for a second baseman.

Right now, Florida does not have a center fielder (unless you count the god-awful Emilio Bonifacio).........is it even remotely possible that the Marlins are clearing some payroll and roster space to make a run at Carl Crawford? This is total speculation on may part, but it kind of makes sense. If you are going to trade your power-hitting second baseman to a division rival and dump your center fielder for some bullpen help in the same week....it may be just a setup for a huge maneuver.

Then again, this IS the Marlins I'm talking about.

As of today, here is my projected Marlins lineup (assuming we make the humongous signing):
1 - Carl Crawford (CF)
2- Chris Coghlan (2B)
3- Hanley Ramirez (SS)
4- Mike Stanton (RF)
5- Gaby Sanchez (1B)
6- Logan Morrison (LF)
7- John Buck (C)
8- Omar Infante (3B)

They are definitely depending A LOT on Stanton in this lineup. But once again, the Marlins would have a very young, competitive squad that is just not quite good enough to compete with the Phillies, Mets and Braves.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Worst MLB trades in the last 25 years

Hey all, I know it's been a while.

On the heels of the news that the Florida Marlins have traded Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for three minor league relief pitchers in two separate deals, I had to post a comment.

This brings one of the worst trades I can remember full-circle: Miguel Cabrera (best Marlin ever) and Dontrelle Willis (one of the best Marlins pitchers ever) for Maybin and Miller.

For a fervent Marlins fan like me, this is the worst trade in the last 25 years.

So, knowing the boys over at the rotojunkie.com forums, I challenged them to come up with worse trades than this one in the last 25 years. I knew they would come up with some doozies:

My post: “So I'm gonna go ahead and call the Miggy Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis for Andrew Miller/Cameron Maybin the worst trade in the last 25 years in baseball.

Prove me wrong.”

The responses:

  1. Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker
  2. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano
  3. A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano
  4. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen
  5. Mark McGwire for Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews and Blake Stein
  6. Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps
  7. Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens
  8. Sammy Sosa, Scott Fletcher & Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines
  9. Curt Schilling, Steve Finley & Pete Harnisch for Glenn Davis
  10. Curt Schilling for Jason Grimsley

Personally, I'd say #5 and #7 are the most egregious. Still, no trade breaks my heart more than the Miggy Cabrera deal.

So go ahead baseball fans.....PROVE ME WRONG!

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Monday, July 5, 2010

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

First Article is up...

Here's a Link to my first article on Advanced Fantasy Baseball:

10 Guys Available in 80% (or more) of ESPN Leagues that are Worth a Look

Enjoy!

I've been called up...

So I have been called up to the next stage of fantasy blogging, as one of my adoring fans has convinced me to contribute to his blog, Advanced Fantasy Baseball.

I will still be posting here, but I will also be linking to my articles there. Please check out the site and leave comments....there is some great analysis by blogger Jon Williams on all sorts of fantasy players and strategies.

My first post is ready to go, and it should be up within the next day or two.

Just as a preview, I will outline the Top 10 players available in 80% or more of ESPN leagues. It's your chance to nab a free agent BEFORE the hype overtakes him (like, say getting Jose Bautista or Aubrey Huff before they went crazy -- something I was able to do in both of my leagues).

Tase This!

The following is a column I wrote for a trade publication about security...no fantasy impact, but of course, there is a sports tie-in. If you are interested in reading more about the security industry, please visit www.securityinfowatch.com.

******************************

Even Non-Lethal Weapons Require Good Judgment

We are living in a world where the verb "tase" has been added to the lexicon. It was made famous by a University of Florida student who was "tased" at a presidential election rally for then-U.S. Senator John Kerry.

On Sept. 17, 2007, Kerry visited the university for a rally. Initially allowed to ask questions after the close of the question period, Andrew Meyer, a 21-year-old fourth-year undergraduate mass communication student, was subsequently removed from the forum by university police. During the struggle to arrest Meyer, one of the officers stunned him with a Taser.

Several videos of the episode were then posted on the Internet. The most viewed version of the video, shot by Kyle Mitchell of The Gainesville Sun, has more than 4.7 million views on YouTube as of this writing. The New Oxford American Dictionary went on to list "tase/taze" as one of the words of the year for 2007, popularized by the widespread use of Meyer's phrase "Don't tase me, bro!"

The less-than-lethal (in most cases) Taser made headlines again in May - this time at a recent Philadelphia Phillies game - when a group of five security officers and one police officer were unable to catch 17-year-old Steven Consalvi, who hopped a fence and ran into the outfield during play. He ran around and avoided his pursuers until the police officer resorted to the stun gun, and downed the trespasser in front of 40,000 fans. It was the first and only time a Taser has been used to subdue a trespassing fan.

According to reports, Philadelphia police are investigating whether the officer used excessive force, and if the equipment was used properly. A CBS report said the parents of the 17-year-old commented that police used too much force. "He definitely shouldn't run on the field. Fine him, whatever he gets for that," said Wayne Consalvi, Steven Consalvi's father. "But tasering him? Definitely uncalled for."

Before you jump to the officer's defense, consider that a fan ran onto the very same field at Citizens Bank Park during a Phillies game the next night, and security did not use a Taser to apprehend the man. He gave himself up without incident. The man hopped over the fence in left field and ran along the warning track waving his arms.

So, is resorting to the Taser in this situation justified? I doubt it. Even if the slow and overweight officer and game day security squad was unable to catch the boy, he did not seem to be posing an immediate danger to the players on the field - he was merely running around like an idiot, because, as he reportedly told his father over the phone before the game, "It's a once-in-a-lifetime experience!"

I am all for the use of non-lethal force when the situation calls for it. Baseball fans remember all-too-well a recent incident at a Chicago White Sox game where the Taser would have been absolutely appropriate. In September of 2002, 34-year-old idiot William Ligue Jr., and his 15-year-old son thought it would be a great idea to hop the fence and attack Kansas City Royals coach Tom Gamboa. One second, Gamboa was standing near first base, the next second he was on his back being pummeled with punches by the two morons. Eventually, they were subdued by police and arrested, although three counts of aggravated battery and one count of mob action later, both Ligues somehow got off with just 30 months of probation and no jail time.

It was by no means the first or last incident of fans attacking players, coaches or umpires on the field. Seven months after the Ligues charged the field, umpire Laz Diaz was assaulted by a fan in nearly the same spot that Gamboa was beaten months before.

On Sept. 28, 1995, Cubs reliever Randy Myers was charged by a 27-year-old bond trader who ran out of the stands at Wrigley Field. Myers saw the man coming, dropped his glove and knocked him down with his forearm. On Sept. 24, 1999, a 23-year-old fan attacked Houston right fielder Bill Spiers in Milwaukee. Spiers ended up with a welt under his left eye, a bloody nose and whiplash.

And of course, most of us remember the infamous 1993 stabbing of tennis star Monica Seles by a deranged fan.

These are situations where the Taser is appropriate. In the Phillies' management's defense, the team released the following statement two days after the tasing incident: "In ordinary circumstances involving field intrusion, the Phillies game day security personnel will make the apprehension of the field jumper and turn him over to the Philadelphia Police on the field for handcuffing and subsequent charging. Police officers will be called upon only if more force is necessary."

The lesson? If the officer was using decent judgment, it never would have been an issue in the first place.

For more from managing editor Paul Rothman, visit his blog, "The STE Executive Suite" at www.SecurityInfoWatch.com/blogs.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Time to Eat Some Crow...


Just to show you all that I'm not 100% baseball guru, here are six things I have been absolutely wrong about on this blog so far:

1. Stephen Strasburg. OK, I know it was the Pirates (and will be Cleveland next), but even the BEST pitchers dont record 14 strikeouts in their first Major League outing. Holy cow! Here are the reasons I didn't like him: He is playing for the Nats....and, well....uhhhh.....that's it. Big Mistake on my part, but it's not like I would have drafted him over Heyward anyway. This guy could win the Cy Young Award (and just like Jaime Garcia) would still not win Rookie of the Year.

2. Mike Stanton. I was convinced he would not see the Majors until next season. Had I known he would make his debut on June 8 (and get two hits to boot), I would have grabbed him without question in the draft (or soon thereafter, as he was an undrafted FA in the UPL).

3. Kendry Morales. I was correct about Kendry -- that he would post the same or better numbers than Adrian Gonzalez this season -- until the idiot broke his leg.

4. Aroldis Chapman. I was so convinced that the Cuban phenom would be fireballing in the Majors by June. I was so convinced, in fact, that I drafted him in my redraft league, intent on using him in the second half to carry me to the top; and I rated him #2 on my UPL draft board. Well, Aroldis isn't exactly dominating AAA right now, let alone the Majors. He may still come up this year, but Strasburg is the one who is doing what I thought Aroldis would.

5. Andy Pettitte. I really gave someone the business for drafting Pettitte ahead of Wade Davis. And while Davis will unquestionably provide the greater long-term value, good old Andy has posted this line so far: 7-1 with a 2.46 ERA. Wow.

6. The San Diego Padres. When looking over the odds to win the AL and NL pennants, I didn't give a second look to the Fathers. They had no talent outside of Adrian Gonzalez, and their starting pitching looked horrible. No way this team can win even 70 games. No way........ahem...cough...cough....ummmmm they dont stop winning. They lead the NL West (Edit-- they just fell a half game back of the Dodgers after losing in extra innings to the Mutts last night). And David Eckstein might be carrying these guys to the pennant. YIKES!

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Act Like You Have Been There...

Wow, what a kick in the nuts! Kendry Morales hits a grand slam to win the game and busts his ankle celebrating afterward -- he's probably done for the year... all this on the night where Roy Halladay tosses a perfecto against the Fish AND I blow open the UPL and take a huge lead in the standings!

How is it that I can get one of the 2-3 injuries that could cripple my squad! What luck! First Base was one of the few positions (and the only offensive position outside of catcher) that I dont have a legit starting backup.

These guys need to take a cue from Barry Sanders...act like you've been there!!!!

As someone else has said in the UPL....It looks like it's trading season.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Killing us in the OF

Continuing my previous post, here is the top 10 all-fantasy killer outfield:

1. Carlos Lee, HOU -- Everything El Caballo has done to this point (next to nothing) is screaming for an adjustment. Then again, it is almost JUNE, and he has just 17 RBI and a .196 batting average. As for the adjustment, Lee has hit three HR in his last four games, to bring his season total up to 5. We all knew Lee would eventually fall off the cliff, but at age 34, there still seems to be time to muster another couple decent seasons -- although there is not a lot of lineup protection in Houston. Considering that Oswalt and Berkman have already indicated they want to be traded, it doesnt seem too far out of the realm of possibility that Caballo will be moved as well -- with that in mind, I would call him a terrific buy low, and the time is now.

2. Carlos Quentin, CHW -- I welcome yet another White Sox player to the all-team-killers list. Quentin kind of burst onto the scene a few years ago, and he has never lived up to his draft day value since then. In 2008, his breakout season, Quentin hit 36 HR and had 100 RBI; and he slugged .571. Then, he fractured his wrist by slamming a bat into the ground in frustration. Last year, he hit 21 HR to go with 56 RBI and missed most of May, all of June, and most of July. He hasn't gotten hurt yet this season, but the clock is ticking. I think you should sell the moment the guy meets a hot streak (if he can). He is currently batting .216 with just 4 HR.

3. Adam Lind, TOR -- Lind was flat-out awesome last season, and who could blame owners for thinking the same type of production would be in store this year? Well, he may be posting OK power numbers (7 HR), but considering that he is trailing Jose Bautista (14 HR), Vernon Wells (11), Alex Gonzalez (10) and John Buck (8) on his own team, we would expect more. Most savvy fantasy owners should have been expecting a short fall, considering his 110 strikeouts last season -- but he still managed to hit .305. This year, he is hitting .231 and slugging just .399; and he is almost halfway to his strikeout mark already, with 46. Here is another guy I would hold until he gets hot, and then try to move him.

4. Grady Sizemore, CLE -- Nobody has gotten as much flack for a decision lately as Michael of the UPL's Muddy Muddy Mush Heads did for leaving Sizemore unprotected (in favor of Jermaine Dye...ouch!) in our expansion draft. And while the Mush Heads are in last place, it isn't because he doesn't have Grady Sizemore! Every red warning flag should be up in the minds of fantasy owners regarding this guy. His season last year was ravaged by injury -- and guess what, his 2010 looks to be more of the same. His batting average has steadily declined over the last 4 seasons, and the power surge he showed in 2008 has disappeared. I think his most recent DL stint (knee) is a blessing in disguise for his owners -- first of all, it gets him out of the lineup :) and second, when he returns, there will be a little bit of buzz surrounding him. Hopefully that buzz will be enough for you to be able to swing a quick deal and get him off your roster for good.

5. Julio Borbon, TEX -- He hit .312 in 46 games last year...and owners were salivating over his 19 steals in those games. Better news for fantasy owners was that Borbon would be leading off for the potent Rangers offense this season, which surely meant a ton of runs and steals!! Fast forward to May, and Borbon is hitting .240, and has long since been moved to the 9th spot in the order, as phenom Elvis Andrus has assumed leadoff duties admirably. That leaves Borbon as a steals-only guy who only has 6 and has found his way onto most waiver wires. It's pretty much time to cut bait, unless you can find an owner who is desperate for speed -- but you wont be getting anywhere near draft-day value for him.

6. Chris Coghlan, FLA -- the reigning NL Rookie of the Year has absolutely no trade value right now -- even to his fans! As Greg told me in a recent e-mail: "I asked you (if you wanted to trade for him) because I figured you were the only person in the league who still valued him at all. Last season he started slow too, so maybe he's just a slow starter." Well, Greg, the fact of the matter is, Coghlan IS a slow starter and he is starting to come out of it. But that's not the problem with Cogs -- the problem is he doesn't provide the ideal set of stats from a top-of-the-line outfielder. His ROY season saw him amass 84 runs scored, which is awesome; however he only posted 9 HR 47 RBI and 8 SB. The bottom line is that Coghlan, even at his best, does not provide you with enough counting stats to justify his value. And when he struggles, those numbers tend to take a hit themselves. As much as I like his scrappy nature at the top of the lineup for the Fish, he shouldn't be starting on very many fantasy teams.

7. Nate McLouth, ATL -- Granted, Nate has come up with a few clutch hits -- I saw him crank a HR to deep center to win a game a few weeks ago -- but the fact of the matter is a prototypical leadoff hitter shouldn't be batting .198. Big props to my boss Steve, who told me three days before my drafts that McLouth was hitting something like .086 for spring training, which convinced me to stay away. McLouth has bounced around the order this season because of his inconsistent hitting, and mostly now finds himself batting in the 8 spot. This is terrible for his fantasy value (not to mention his paltry 2 steals), and while it may be too early to completely sever ties with the guy, I would be looking to get rid of him at a discount.

8. Milton Bradley, SEA -- Listen, we all knew this guy just might have a few screws loose. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he was dealing with "dark thoughts" in the last year or two that forced him to go onto the restricted list and miss most of this season so far. He just came back to the Mariners after some counseling, and he has posted two multi-hit games so far. If you are interested in reading more about Bradley's troubles, ESPN just did a cool exclusive interview. Numbers-wise, it is probably a big risk to try and buy low on Bradley, but someone on the Mariners has to start hitting, right? The discount on Bradley would be so deep that it might be worth taking a chance.

9. Nolan Reimold, BAL -- I was very high on Reimold coming into the season. He seems to possess all the tools to be a quality OF in the Majors. Instead, this season has turned into an unmitigated disaster for him and his owners -- bad enough to see him splitting time with Felix Pie -- and then finally bad enough to be demoted to AAA. He slugged .466 last year and looked very promising in a little more than half a season. After less than half of this one, I'm selling or dumping and not looking back.

10. Mark DeRosa, SF -- Even before he hit the DL, DeRosa was doing just about nothing. He may have looked good for half the season with the Cardinals last year, but those memories are long gone for fantasy owners this season, with a whopping 10 RBIs in 93 ABs. He is 35 years old, and now he has a bum wrist. Dump him.

HM- Kyle Blanks (bust city); Jeff Francouer (he teased you for a second or two, but he is back to form, hitting .210 with 29 strikeouts).

Thursday, May 20, 2010

The All-Team Killers Infield

Now that we are in mid-May, It's easier to see who is truly struggling. Thus, here is my list of the all-team killers infield based on stats thus far. Stay tuned for OFs and Pitchers.

If you own one of these players, it may be time to cut bait -- either by trading at a discount or by cutting them outright. If you dont own one of these players, this list represents a high-risk, buy-low scenario -- where you would likely be able to easily trade for these players at a discount over their draft prices.

Let's give it a go:

CATCHER
  • First team -- Chris Iannetta, COL. The guy is mashing in AAA right now. Doh!! Former Marlin Miguel Olivo is playing well enough to make this mid-round catcher fantasy irrelevant.
  • Second team -- Victor Martinez, BOS. Apologies to AJ Pierzynski owners, but Victor was a much higher pick who is delivering with a .234 batting average. He is slugging .379; but then again, teammate Jason Varitek is slugging .804! Victor is batting .217 in the last 2 weeks, so things are not on the upswing at all. Still, probably a good buy-low at this point, but will be difficult with that name.
  • Hon. Mention -- Pierzynski; Miguel Montero (injured); Mike Napoli
FIRST BASE
  • First team -- Carlos Pena, TB. Amazing to think that the Rays are dominating with its best power hitter turning in a .185 BA so far. Pena is mired is what is probably his worst career slump-- he is batting .150 over the last two weeks with 2 RBI. Classic buy-low opportunity here, as Pena owners are sure to be eager to pull the plug. But who would want to buy this junk right now?
  • Second team -- Chris Davis, TEX. He has been demoted, and I dont see him coming back until he is on another team completely. Given several chances, Davis probably has proven that he is a bust. Cut the cord!
  • Hon. Mention -- Mark Teixeira (coming on lately, so he avoids the top 2); Derrek Lee (when is this guy going to start hitting already?); Nick Johnson (cut the cord!! Done again!)
SECOND BASE
  • First team -- Gordon Beckham, CHW. Definitely a buy-low considering his pedigree; and his .184 average and bordering-on-zero counting stats (1 HR, 6 RBI in 130 ABs) will make it really easy. Oh yeah, and he is batting .102 in the month of May. He should be on someone's bench, but at this point, his stats make him totally worthless.
  • Second team -- Brian Roberts, BAL. One of the many reasons that the Orioles totally suck -- well mainly because he hasn't been there to lead off. Sure, he was batting .142 before his back injury, and he is due back in mid-June, but this might be something that lingers for quite a while. Almost zero return right now on what was one of the top 10 pre-season 2Bs.
  • Hon. Mention -- Aaron Hill (my man needs to find his stroke); Jose Lopez (following up a career year with a .214 average so far); Clint Barmes (cant seem to hit, may be a cut-the-cord guy).
THIRD BASE
  • First team -- Aramis Ramirez, CHC. The easy choice. He is just 32 years old -- has he just lost it? From what I have seen, not only can't he hit, but he is also butchering plays at third base on a routine basis. A friend of mine just got offered three junk players for Aramis...I thought he might have to take it. He's batting .166, for the record, although he does have 20 RBIs.
  • Second team -- Chone Figgins, SEA. A change of scenery has thrown this guy's game into the crapper. Nine steals is a redeemable quality, but how can you swallow that .194 batting average? Still, I would put him on the buy-low list, if you need some speed.
  • Hon. Mention -- Mark DeRosa (sucked before he got injured); Chipper Jones (sucks now, before he will get injured).
SHORTSTOP
  • First team -- Yunel Escobar, ATL. I was very high on Escobar coming into the season, so his .179 average, zero HR and a measly 17 combined runs and RBIs comes as a sort of shock to me. He came in as the fifth-ranked SS by CBS for heaven's sake!! This is a guy that finished with a .300 average and a .436 slugging % last season. Of everyone I have mentioned so far, I think he is the best buy-low out there. An adjustment is coming in my opinion.
  • Second team -- Jose Reyes, NYM. Last year, he was universally taken in the first five or so picks of every fantasy baseball draft. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Most owners are forced to suffer through his .210 BA to get those 9 steals, especially when the dude was projected (last year) to steal 70-plus bases for the next 10 seasons. People like me who bought this guy on the hype last year will be loathed to sell him this low, but it's looking like it might be now or never to get something back for him.
  • Hon. Mention -- Alexi Ramirez (how many White Sox can I name?); Jason Bartlett (starting to turn it around, so buy now before it's too late); Erick Aybar (.229 average, but 23 runs scored -- should bring up the average soon).
I will admit that I own (or have at one point owned) four of these players.

Therefore, in their honor, I will post the following:

Thursday, May 13, 2010

A Game of Inches

OK folks, I have been silent to this point, but now that the dust has cleared regarding my vetoed trade in the UPL, I want to go ahead and vent.

I was *this close* to having the most promising -- and probably the very best -- three-OF combination for the next 10 years in a league where you keep 2/3 of your roster and there is no limit on the length of service time. That's right, my OF would have been: Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings and Mike Stanton. Set for the next 10+ years, period.

And that's not all -- I also would have gotten a 27-year-old front-line SP for my trouble....and I get all that by simply answering an e-mail about Justin Smoak.

When I was drafting, my clear strategy was to load up on promising young guys who were either: 1) about to be a superstar (why I traded up to get Heyward); or 2) someone who is 2-12 months away from becoming a major contributor.

This is why I drafted Smoak. Not only was the guy highly touted, but I also had a feeling that Chris Davis was going to flounder. Not one month into the season, I was rewarded when Smoak was called up to start in the potent Texas offense. I drafted Jennings a few picks before Smoak because he is more highly touted and due to be called up late this year.

This is also why I did not draft Mike Stanton, and chose to take Smoak instead -- because I knew that Smoak would be in the bigs many months before Stanton, who was not projected to be called up (at draft time) until 2011.

Anyway, I get this email asking about Smoak's availability, and I respond simply: "if you offer me some pitching, I will listen." Eventually, I settled on Smoak for Jered Weaver straight-up; but I was countered with something I didnt like, so I re-proposed Smoak and Marco Scutaro for Weaver and Stanton.

He accepted.

Auto Veto.

Uproar.

Bedlam.

Rule change.

Auto Veto is now effectively dead.

I ended up taking Erick Aybar instead of Stanton to make the trade happen (because Weaver was definitely the true target). And I realize that Stanton will be called up this season (after a torrid minor league go); but the bottom line is that he was picked off waivers just 2 weeks before the trade went down. I offered him a starter-quality SS for a guy in the minors and was shot down by someone not involved in the deal.

I'm not petty or upset -- I still got my guy, who has been great in a few starts for me already. But truth be told, if someone is in love with the potential that Smoak brings, who is anyone else to say that he isn't worth Weaver and Stanton?

*this close* doesnt count in a lot of things...and fantasy baseball is certainly one of them. I can live with that.

SIDE NOTE: Maybe it's karma or whatever, but the bats are warm, the arms are hot, and the Hats for Bats -- the same team that couldnt find its way out of last place for more than 3/4 of last season -- are challenging for a spot on the podium these days. I can definitely live with that!

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Strange Season So Far

If you are having a great fantasy season so far, great job. It seems like this year is one of the most difficult offensive starts league-wide than I can ever remember.

The American League, as of today, is batting .255. The National League is batting .257.

Just to put this in perspective...
  • In 2009, the AL batted .266 and the NL .259
  • 2008: AL .267; NL .260
  • 2007: AL .270; NL .266
  • 2006: AL .275; NL .264
  • 2005: AL .268; NL .262
  • 2004: AL .270; NL .263
  • 2003: AL .267; NL .261
  • 2002: AL .264; NL .259
  • 2001: AL .267; NL .261
  • 2000: AL .276; NL .266

Moreso than in past years, it looks like there is a major adjustment ahead in YOUR fantasy standings. Nobody is safe. Soon enough, all of the players below the Mendoza Line are going to come out of this, and it is going to change the statistical landscape dramatically.

Here's a look at the studs (or mostly-owned fantasy players) who are hovering around the Mendoza Line as of today...and unless you have had your head buried in the sand for a while, you know that a certain Yankee is going to lead off this list:

Hello, I'm your Poster Boy!!

  1. Mark Teixeira .133 (always starts slow, but this is crazy)
  2. Chris Ianetta .133 (Destined for the Minors?)
  3. Brian Roberts .142 (injured)
  4. Nick Johnson .142 (either a strikeout or a walk, just about every time)
  5. Mike Napoli .153
  6. David Ortiz .153 (No more 'roids to help this guy out)
  7. Aramis Ramirez .154 (bound for a turnaround soon)
  8. Aaron Hill .156 (hammy injury caused the slow start, I hope)
  9. Nate McLouth .160 (spring woes continue)
  10. Gary Matthews .166
  11. AJ Pierzynski .166
  12. Lyle Overbay .168
  13. Drew Stubbs .171
  14. Carlos Lee .173 (shocker!)
  15. Jake Fox .175
  16. Chris Coghlan .179 (started slow last year, seems to be finding a groove lately)
  17. JD Drew .180
  18. Carlos Quentin .183 (wow)
  19. Julio Borbon .184 (moved to bottom of the order thanks to this start)
  20. Kyle Blanks .184 (overhyped?)
  21. Chris Davis .187 (already sent down)
  22. Brandon Wood .187
  23. David Murphy .187
  24. Clint Barmes .188 (Just dont carry any of that deer meat up the stairs buddy)
  25. Eugenio Velez .190
  26. Jhonny Peralta .190 (downhill slide?)
  27. Travis Hafner .190 (Check the Big Papi listing...)
  28. Grady Sizemore .191 (injuries may have taken their toll)
  29. Rod Barajas .193
  30. Luis Valbuena .196
  31. Melky Cabrera .197 (Did the Braves get hosed? At least they gave up Vazquez who blows!)
  32. Yunel Escobar .197 (should be much better than this!)
  33. Matt Diaz .200
  34. Chone Figgins .200 (should come around)
  35. Adam Jones .202 (has played in 4 or 5 different spots in the order already)
  36. Derrick Lee .202 (tough to believe)
  37. Troy Glaus .202 (NOT A SHOCK)
  38. Nolan Reimold .203
  39. Gordon Beckham .205 (surprising)
  40. Milton Bradley .207
  41. Everth Cabrera .209
  42. Brandon Phillips .209
Those of you who own Garrett Jones, Jason Kubel, Juan Pierre, Luke Scott, Hunter Pence, Alexi Ramirez, JJ Hardy, Raul Ibanez, Mark DeRosa, Rajai Davis, Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Jason Heyward, Shane Victorino, Ken Griffey, Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn and Lasting Milledge -- your boys are only one or two 0-for-4 performances from joining this list!

So who are the main culprits?
The White Sox are a total joke right now, with 5 guys on the list above and a team BA of......drum roll please.... .221!! Next worst is Toronto (.225) and Atlanta (.227). Cleveland has a ton of guys on the list too.

Im sure all of us have at least one or two players on this list -- and while that's not a good thing right now, hopefully that huge adjustment will make us all feel better.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Taking "We Suck" to a whole nutha level


The Pittsburgh Pirates looked really solid for the first couple weeks. The pitching was decent and the young hitting was on fire. They took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers to start the season and didnt look horrible (not great either, mind you) in dropping two series to Zona and SF. Then they swept the Reds...and I was thinking that this team reeked of sleeper potential (you know, in the way that the 2003 Marlins were a sleeper).

Wake up call -- they have lost 7 in a row.

The combined score was 72-12.

That included a 20-0 loss; a 17-3 loss; a 10-3 loss; an 8-0 loss; and an 8-1 loss.

And just for fun, lets take a gander at the Pirates' joke of a pitching staff, shall we?
  • Evan Meek (obviously not that meek): 0.69 ERA, 13 Ks in 13 IP.
  • Javier Lopez: 2.45 ERA, 7.1 IP
  • Ross Ohlendorf: 3.60, 5 IP

Now watch your grip as they fall off the cliff:
  • Paul Maholm (ace... hah): 1-2 record, 4.74 ERA, 14K, 8 BB
  • Jack Taschner: 4.91 ERA with 12 Ks in 11 IP
  • Zach Duke (#2 starter...comical!): 2-2 record, 6.11 ERA, 14 BB, 20 runs allowed
  • DJ Carrasco: 6.43 ERA
  • Brendan Donnelly: 7.27 ERA
  • Brian Bass: 9.00 ERA
  • Brian Burres: 9.31 ERA

OK, now that you are holding on for dear life, enter "holy shit" territory:
  • Octavio Dotel (my closer....arrrgh): 12.27 ERA, .382 opponents' average
  • Joel Hanrahan: 12.60 ERA in 5 really solid innings
  • Daniel McCutchen: 0-2 as a starter, 13.50 ERA
  • Carlie Morton: 4 starts, 4 losses, 16.20 ERA and a stellar .418 opponents' average
  • Chris Jakubauskas: Took one off the noggin, so I'll cut him some slack for his 27.00 ERA in 0.2 IP.
  • Hayden Penn: 2 innings, 8 runs allowed (wow) for a 30.86 ERA.

I sure hope Dotel can turn it around...most of his crappy stats came in non-save situations. Why do closers suck so bad in non-save situations?

So, in conclusion, I will say it again....NL Central hitters and pitchers -- BUY! BUY! BUY! Your players will have lots of chances to face off against the suckitude that is Pittsburgh Pirates pitching.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

This is what it comes down to folks....

This is what being a baseball fan has become these days....

Fox Sports is reporting that barring a reversal in the appeal process, a major league player will be suspended in the next 48 hours for using performance-enhancing drugs, according to multiple sources.

The player is well-known but not a major star and not a member of the Yankees, one source said. Craig Calcaterra of NBCSports.com reported that the player is a National League pitcher.

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus was the first to report that a suspension was imminent.

Care to speculate?

"Well known but not a major star"....my guess is Vicente Padilla. Gotta be an old guy.

Here's to hoping it isn't any player that anyone owns and depends on....wait a minute, scratch that -- I just hope it isn't any player that I own and depend on!


**UPDATE: OK, it isn't a player anyone was depending on this season, it was injured Edinson Volquez of the Reds...although he is owned in the UPL. Guess the 50-game ding will take place next season.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Tough Choice? Avoid the AL Beast!

Have you ever been in a spot in your baseball draft where it was two guys that looked pretty equal, and you had a hard time choosing between the two? Let’s say you have the next pick your fantasy draft, and you have decided you will definitely take a starting pitcher. You must choose between Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. Both of them project for 18-ish wins, 200 Ks and nearly identical ERA and WHIP (going by ESPN projections – hey, it was the easiest).

So what’s your deciding factor? How do you choose?

Here is one way to look at things to help you make those tough choices. It is by no means meant to be the first and only way to evaluate players – just a way to make a tough choice more manageable.

First of all, I am a big believer in playing matchups when it comes to starting pitchers. When given the option of playing offensive Player A against 3 or 4 top-of-the-line pitchers for the week or playing offensive Player B against just 1 top-of-the-line starter, I’m usually going with B, no matter what the names are. The same can be said for my starting pitcher choices – I tend to look for matchups to exploit, especially in my head-to-head league. No chance you will see me run Wade Davis out there to face CC Sabathia, unless it’s my only choice (as it is in the UPL for now).

Baseball followers know that divisional rivals play against each other more than any non-division teams. So, if you take a look at the top SPs by division, you can attempt to predict which hitters and pitchers will most frequently be facing a very difficult matchup.

Here is a look at the top SPs by division (as determined by ESPN’s % owned – 90% or better, and ranked by me, for your convenience and ridicule):

AL EAST: CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Matt Garza, Javier Vazquez, David Price, James Shields, Clay Buchholz, Brian Matusz

AL CENTRAL: Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Max Scherzer, Scott Baker, Rick Porcello, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, F. Liriano

AL WEST: King Felix, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Brett Anderson, Rich Harden

NL EAST: Doc Halladay, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels, Ricky Nolasco, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, JA Happ

NL CENTRAL: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Wandy Rodriguez, Ryan Dempster, Roy Oswalt, Bronson Arroyo

NL WEST: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Jorge De La Rosa, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon Webb

So, it becomes apparent that I would have been taking King Felix over Lester….just look at the murderer’s row that is the AL Beast! Sure, if you have Lester, then he will never face Beckett or Lackey.....But Lord help you if you have Toronto or Baltimore pitchers (which I do – Marcum, but it was a flier), because I would say that those guys have to face a beast of an opposing pitcher 30-40 percent of the time.

Now, I will grant you there are only 4 teams in the AL West, but all four teams are at least represented. To me, the weakest division for starting pitching is the NL Central – there are six teams and the best the division can do is 7 pitchers (and Arroyo is a major stretch who just made it over the 90-percent-owned line).

NL Central hitters and pitchers = Buy! Buy! Buy!

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Must See TV


Premiering April 20th on ESPN....Silly Little Game, what looks to be the story of the modest beginnings of rotisserie baseball...

Here's an excerpt from the ESPN page:

Fantasy Sports is estimated to be a $4 billion dollar industry that boasts over 30 million participants and a league for almost every sport imaginable. But for all this success, the story of the game’s inception is little known. The modern fantasy leagues can be traced back to a group of writers and academics who met at La Rotisserie Francaise in New York City to form a baseball league of their own: The Rotisserie League. The game quickly grew in popularity, and with the growing use and attractiveness of the Internet, the “founding fathers” never foresaw how their creation would take off and ultimately leave them behind. Innovative filmmakers Adam Kurland and Lucas Jansen will chronicle the early development and ultimate explosion of Rotisserie Baseball, and shine a light on its mostly unnoticed innovators.

Knowing that the history of America is embroiled in Fantasy Sports (née Rotisserie) muck, it wasn’t so much a choice to make this film as it was our American duty to honor this world-changing almost-sport. Whether Fantasy got its start in the front office of the 1963 Raiders, the mind of a Harvard sociologist, ancient Polynesian customs, or (and this one is probably the truest) with eleven self-described “stat-crazed schmucks” in a mediocre French restaurant on New York’s upper East Side; few to none of the millions of fantasy players who make up today’s multi-billion-dollar fantasy industry know anything about its origins, nor do they pay any respect or dividends to its founders. Now they will.


Monday, March 29, 2010

Re-Draft Madness

First of all, let me note that my yearly redraft league is quirky in its scoring. It is a H2H, points-based league. Steals are worth 1 point (usually it is 2), which skews the whole thing toward the power players. Luck can be a major factor, in that the whole thing is basically decided during one-week playoff rounds (much like fantasy football, which I hate).

As a traditional roto player, it took me a few seasons to get a grasp on the best players, but this format has really grown on me. I have played in this league for quite a while now, and I have a first- and second-place finish to my credit.

Another quirk: Closer value. It hit me like a ton of bricks the first season -- I noticed that people were taking closers starting late in round 2 and early in round 3!! And when the flood gates opened, you could definitely see 6 teams in a row take a closer.

It blew my mind. Closers score the fewest amount of points every week; they have little to no chance of posting a 50-point week; and at the end of the season they contribute the fewest points to your team. For years, I have been determined to take advantage of this ridiculous trend, and I always came away with a strong team....but my train-wreck situations at closer seemed to always end up costing me huge in the end. I would advance in the playoffs, only to be upset by someone who outscored me 60-12 or something at the 2 RP positions. One year, I even tried drafting two middle relievers instead (and I was totally loaded everywhere else)...and I lost in the second round of the playoffs.

The year I won the league I made a deadline deal for, funnily enough, Jose Valverde, and it was the key to everything. This year, I tried to do what I've always done, but I told....no...forced myself to sacrifice a pick and take a closer in the first 4 rounds. All this explanation for taking Papelbon....lol

Anyway here's my squad. I had the 12th pick of 14 teams -- and oh yeah -- Utley went 10th and ARod went 11th (huh???). I almost fell off my chair thinking I would get ARoid.... I'm still chugging from the fountain of youth, as you will see. Chapman could be panning out for me just in time to carry me through the playoffs.

C- Ryan Doumit
1B- Miguel Cabrera (first pick)
2B- Aaron Hill (fourth pick)
3B- Jorge Cantu (seventh pick)
SS- Elvis Andrus (10th pick)
OF- Matt Holliday (second pick)
OF- Andrew McCutchen
OF- Adam Jones
DH- Nolan Reimold; or could be Travis Snider
Bench- Kevin Kouzmanoff; Gaby Sanchez; Matt LaPorta; Ian Desmond

SP- Tommy Hanson (fifth pick)
SP- Dan Haren (sixth pick)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (eighth pick)
SP/Backups (I use this slot for 2-start week-players for the most part): Shaun Marcum; Wade Davis; Jeff Niemann; Aroldis Chapman
RP- Papelbon (third pick)
RP- Dotel (ninth pick, and only the crappy closers left at this point -- Capps, Wood/Perez, Lyon/Lindstrom, thats it)

So...how did I do?